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Author, Editor: Cervigni, Raffaello; Liden, Rikard; Neumann, James E.;
Strzepek, Kenneth M.
Date Publication: 2015
Publisher: World Bank Group
ISBN or ISSN:
Abtract: This book evaluates -using for the first time a single
consistent methodology and the state-of-the-arte climate scenarios-, the
impacts of climate change on hydro-power and irrigation expansion plans in
Africa’s main rivers basins (Niger, Senegal, Volta, Congo, Nile, Zambezi,
Orange); and outlines an approach to reduce climate risks through suitable
adjustments to the planning and design process. The book finds that failure to
integrate climate change in the planning and design of power and water infrastructure
could entail, in scenarios of drying climate conditions, losses of hydropower
revenues between 5% and 60% (depending on the basin); and increases in consumer
expenditure for energy up to 3 times the corresponding baseline values. In in
wet climate scenarios, business-as-usual infrastructure development could lead
to foregone revenues in the range of 15% to 130% of the baseline, to the extent
that the larger volume of precipitation is not used to expand the production of
hydropower. Despite the large uncertainty on whether drier or wetter conditions
will prevail in the future in Africa, the book finds that by modifying existing
investment plans to explicitly handle the risk of large climate swings, can cut
in half or more the cost that would accrue by building infrastructure on the
basis of the climate of the past.
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